Earthquake Rupture Forecast (ERF)

An Earthquake Rupture Forecast (ERF) is one of the two main modeling components in OpenSHA, the other being an Intensity Measure Relationship (IMR).

An ERF gives a forecast of all possible Earthquake Ruptures as their probability of occurrence over a specified Time Span. In OpensSHA, an ERF is given as a list of Probabilistic Earthquake Sources and includes information on its region of applicability.