Probabilistic Earthquake Source

A Probabilistic Earthquake Source is a list of mutually exclusive Probabilistic Earthquake Ruptures. As an example, a Probabilistic Earthquake Source could be defined for a particular fault as a list of all possible Earthquake Ruptures corresponding to a range of Magnitudes that could occur on the fault or Rupture Surface.

A Probabilistic Earthquake Source can also encapsulates the following information:

  • Number of Probabilistic Earthquake Ruptures in the list
  • Total Probability (sum of those in the list)
  • Total Probability above a specified Magnitude
  • Whether or not the source is Poisson (if yes, the probability for each Probabilistic Earthquake Rupture is interpreted as the probability of one or more events, otherwise it's interpreted as the probability of the next event)

A Probabilistic Earthquake Source is also always defined in the context of an Earthquake Rupture Forecast (ERF), so the event probabilities are with respect to the Time Span associated with the ERF.